Pipelines of Power: Energy Security, Geopolitics, and Regional Resilience in a Fragmented Visegrad Region

Abstract

Purpose - This study examines the determinants of natural gas supply strategies in the Visegrad countries between 1990 and the post-2022 energy crisis, focusing on the interaction between geographical proximity to Russia, inherited Soviet-era pipeline infrastructure, and domestic political-economic conditions.

Design/methodology/approach - Using a comparative case study design based on process tracing and contribution analysis, the paper identifies the causal mechanisms linking structural conditions to national energy policy outcomes in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland.

Findings - The findings demonstrate that geographical proximity to Russia influences threat perception and diversification behavior, but its effects are conditional rather than deterministic. Likewise, inherited pipeline infrastructure creates path dependency and institutional inertia, yet these constraints can be mitigated through market liberalization, strategic investment, and integration into European energy networks. Poland most strongly confirms the role of threat perception in driving diversification, while the Czech Republic emerges as a deviant case due to early liberalization, institutional capacity, and advantageous access to Western infrastructure. Slovakia and Hungary illustrate more pragmatic and path-dependent trajectories shaped by domestic political priorities, transit interests, and state control over strategic sectors.
The study further shows that the post-February 2022 energy crisis and EU initiatives such as REPowerEU have significantly altered the relevance of traditional dependency variables. The expansion of LNG infrastructure, reverse-flow capacities, and regional interconnections has reduced the rigidity of pipeline-based dependence and increased the importance of market integration and policy-driven diversification. At the same time, climate policy, ESG commitments, and decarbonization objectives increasingly shape regional energy strategies alongside geopolitical considerations.

Originality - The paper contributes to the energy security literature by developing a conditional and multi-variable analytical framework that integrates geopolitical, economic, and institutional perspectives. It argues that energy dependence in Central Europe is best understood not as a fixed structural condition, but as a dynamic outcome shaped by policy choices, institutional capacity, market structures, and evolving European energy governance.